Rethinking human mobility in the face of global changes. A focus on Bangladesh and Central Asia

CASCADES Policy Brief June 2021

Migration and displacement related to climate change have received increasing attention in the media, in research and among policymakers in recent years. A range of studies have produced extremely concerning statistics and forecasts about the potential scale of migration and displacement due to climate change now and in the future. For example, the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre calculated that in 2019 alone almost 25 million people were displaced by disasters such as floods and tropical storms – three times the number displaced by conflict and violence (IDMC 2020a). The World Bank’s 2018 Groundswell report estimated that, if substantial climate change mitigation and development measures are not taken, slow-onset climate impacts could displace as many as 143 million people in just three world regions, or 55 percent of the developing world’s population, by 2050 (Rigaud et al. 2018).

These kinds of figures have been widely reported and drive the prevailing narrative in media and policy debates that climate change will lead to mass migration and displacement, which, in turn, can lead to conflict. There is empirical evidence that rising temperatures, leading to disasters and slow-onset impacts such as drought or sea-level rise are already playing a role in setting people across the world on the move, and these numbers are likely to increase as climate change impacts intensify (UNINE n.d.; IOM's GMDAC 2020).