INTRODUCTION

2015 will go down as the year Europe felt a tragedy of global dimensions for itself. Other parts of the world have been facing what is now known as the “refugee crisis” for much longer and with much greater intensity. The impact of the crisis will be felt strongly throughout Europe, not just in a handful of countries, and it will continue to affect the European construction project as a whole, not just some of its policies. In the papers brought together in this monograph, we identify ten collateral effects that are already being felt.

The first three contributions analyse the effects of the crisis on the cohesion of European societies from different angles. Yolanda Onghena approaches it from the perspective of the EU's founding values, which are being called into question. Marga León and Joan Subirats note how the mass arrival of refugees in some member states is revealing the fragility of social welfare systems already hit by the economic crisis and austerity policies. And, finally, in his paper, Jordi Bacaria argues that if well managed the arrival of these people could be an opportunity to revitalise European labour markets.

Blanca Garcés and Elena Sánchez-Montijano, in their respective analyses, underline the challenge that the crisis poses to the EU's asylum policies and its current system of free movement of people. They contend that the number of voices from different quarters demanding revision of the Dublin Convention and the Schengen Treaty is steadily growing. These contributions warn that any revisions should not be made at the expense of European countries’ obligations in terms of international protection of refugees and the intra-European mobility scheme.

The response to the arrival of hundreds of thousands of people in the space of a few months has deepened the divisions at the heart of the EU as well as in some of its states, especially those that have taken in the largest number of refugees. Pol Morillas examines the opening up of a breach that had been forgotten between western and central Europe and the rest of the continent. Once again, the EU astonishes with its unprecedented capacity to accumulate crises and multiply the factors of disintegration. In his analysis, Eckart Woertz focusses on one of the main protagonists, Germany, where the figure of Angela Merkel stands out for her moral leadership that transcends the borders of her country. But her initial open policy towards the refugees has provoked greater division in German society as well as within her own party.

Finally, three areas are pointed out where the crisis has conditioned the EU’s external action: EU foreign policy itself, the role of Turkey, and Russia bursting onto the scene of the crisis. Francis Ghilès points out the deficiencies, weaknesses and miscalculations made in foreign policy by an EU that is ill-equipped to handle a much more hostile scenario than that which prevailed at the end of the cold war. Eduard Soler argues that Turkey has taken advantage of its geographical location and EU weaknesses to present itself as an indispensable actor. In this sense, if the refugees were previously seen as a burden for Ankara, they have now become a diplomatic trump card. Finally, Nicolás de Pedro tackles the role of Russia in the intersection between the humanitarian crisis and the war in Syria. In his reflection, he underlines how the Kremlin’s strategy targets the EU’s weak points, with the management of refugee flows among the most notorious.

This monograph reflects that the crisis we face has a long way to run yet, as much because of the magnitude of the phenomenon as the side-effects that it is unleashing. With this in mind, CIDOB’s efforts in this field have been redoubled and remain cross-cutting. In 2015 we launched a work programme that is designed to be long-lasting and which approaches the refugee phenomenon at three levels: the causes at source, the European response and the reception policies in the local environment. This collective effort is one of its first results.