Kyrgyzstan after the elections. Is the Worst Yet to Come?

Notes internacionals CIDOB, núm. 22

Nicolás de Pedro, Researcher, CIDOB

Kyrgyzstan is still sunk in deep crisis. The difficulties of forming a new government, institutional weakness, the nationalist drift and latent ethnic conflict in the south of the country are threatening to break the country apart. The parliamentary elections of 10 October 2010 took place in an atmosphere of calm and, of those held in Central Asia, are the first to be recognised as really “free and fair”. Nevertheless, the results have given rise to a complicated situation that will be difficult to manage, both because of fragmentation – the agreement of at least three of the five parties that have obtained representation in the Jogorku Kenesh is necessary – and, in particular, the strength of those who want to revoke the Constitution that was approved last June. The protests and demonstrations of some of the parties that did not win seats further hamper the formation of a new Parliament and the consolidation of political and institutional stability. Again, the volatile situation in the south continues stable but tense. The lack of means for reconstruction and reconciliation increases the likelihood of a new outbreak of violence between Kyrgyzs and Uzbeks with the aggravating circumstance that some of the population is stockpiling firearms.

Six Convulsive Months. The violent riots in Bishkek on 7 April brought down the regime of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. The demonstrators’ assault on the presidential palace obliged Bakiyev to flee and take refuge in his native town near Jalalabad in the south of the country. Fed up with the situation of economic impoverishment, corruption and the attempt by Bakiyev and his allies to take over the country’s main income-earning
sectors, the people and opposition leaders rose against him. The use of firearms by security forces and also by some of the demonstrators, added to the general violence of the events which ended with a death toll of eighty-six and some one thousand five hundred injured. On the night of 7 April, an interim government was constituted, this being headed by Roza Otunbayeva, a figure of widely-acknowledge prestige within the country and a long political and diplomatic career behind her. The new authorities announced the drafting of a parliamentary Constitution and the future holding of parliamentary and presidential elections.

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