Russia’s War on Ukraine: Two Inconvenient Truths for the EU

JOINT Brief No. 24 (November 2022)

Following a spectacular counteroffensive and the retaking of Kherson, the war in Europe’s east has moved into a new phase. The immediate focus is now shifting to the chilling effects of winter – both on the frontline and on Western morale. However, this must not prevent the EU and its member states from confronting two key – and unavoidable – strategic questions.

The first is short-term. Russia’s partial mobilisation may help to slow its territorial losses. But if Ukraine has indeed acquired “irreversible momentum”,¹ this raises questions over how far Kyiv can continue to press its advantage before Moscow chooses to escalate even further, possibly employing non-conventional means. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to annex four Ukrainian territories has already demonstrated his penchant for escalating in the face of setbacks, especially when the benefits of de-escalating are unclear.

References:

1- Olga Rudenko, “Retired US General Ben Hodges: ‘We’ve Reached Irreversible Momentum for Ukraine’”, in The Kyiv Independent, 19 September 2022, https://kyivindependent.com/national/retired-us-general-if-russia-used-nuclear-weapon-in-ukraine-us-would-have-to-get-directlyinvolved.