Pushing Iran against the wall: More than Just a Regional Problem

Notes internacionals CIDOB, núm. 18

The recent EU, US and UN decisions to impose sanctions on Iran have met with varying degrees of response by key world players. Global experience with the effectiveness of sanctions in bringing about behavioural or regime change has not been a particularly happy one –the sanctions imposed by the West on Iraq, for instance, arguably worsened the lot of the Iraqi people, particularly children, without appearing to affect Saddam Hussein’s rule; and their ineffectiveness ultimately led to the US-led invasion of Iraq. Sanctions against Myanmar, another regime distasteful to the West, also seem to have achieved little.

So what is the point, at this juncture, of new sanctions on Iran? What does the West really hope to gain?

The very real possibility of Iran developing effective nuclear weapons, and its strategic position in the region, makes this more than just a local issue. Strong signals have therefore to be sent.

Furthermore, two newly-arrived non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, Turkey and Brazil, now offer a new perspective on Iran’s relationship with the rest of the world which could help unlock the stalled talks on nuclear weapons.

Another factor that could determine the effectiveness of the new round of sanctions is the relatively precarious state of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s government, following the disputed elections in 2009. The less-than-ringing endorsement of his government by the people of Iran means that their President may well need to take heed of what his constituents are saying, in a way that has not been necessary before. If sanctions now begin to bite at the local level, then the street may come out vocally against the regime. Can Mr. Ahmadinejad afford this? Or will he change his position on the nuclear issue?

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