The Brexit Scenarios: Towards a New UK-EU Relationship

Documents CIDOB (Nueva época): 7

Authors Scenario #1: Bremain 

Stuart A. Brown, Research Associate, LSE, Senior Research Associate, University of East Anglia, and the Managing Editor of the LSE’s EUROPP – European Politics and Policy blog
Tena Prelec, ESRC-funded doctoral researcher at the School of Law, Politics and Sociology, University of Sussex, and Editor of the LSE’s EUROPP – European Politics and Policy blog

Author Scenario #2:  A soft Brexit

Swati Dhingra, Lecturer in Economics, LSE, CEP, CEPR, CESIfo

Author Scenario #3: A harsh Brexit

Tim Oliver, Dahrendorf Fellow, LSE IDEAS

This publication brings together the papers presented at the workshop “Scenarios of a new UK-EU relationship”, held at CIDOB on May 20th 2016 and co-organised with the London School of Economics’ European Politics and Policy blog (LSE EUROPP). The workshop analysed the scenarios of the British referendum on European Union (EU) membership that will take place on June 23rd 2016 and discussed, among other issues, the negotiations between the British government and the EU, the referendum campaign, the internal developments in the United Kingdom (UK) and the EU and the scenarios that might prevail after the referendum. This publication presents three scenarios based on whether the UK will stay in the EU (“Bremain”), whether it will leave the EU following some form of agreement (“soft Brexit”) or whether it leaves it abruptly (“harsh Brexit”). The authors cover the economic, political, social and geopolitical effects of each scenario, attempting to devise the new UK-EU relationship in case these scenarios materialise. They pay particular attention to the political dynamics in the EU following the Brexit referendum and the effects on the European project, as well as on the future of the UK. 

Keywords: United Kingdom, Brexit, European Union, integration, referendum

E-ISSN: 2339-9570 /  D.L.: B 11000-2014